By: Nancy Drapeau, PRC, VP of Research and Analyses by Dr. Allen Shaw, Economist, CEIR
On 27th January, CEIR held a webinar that gave an update on how the U.S. B2B exhibition industry and U.S. economy are expected to fare this year as well as the forecast through 2022.
This blog provides a visual, summarizing the most likely forecast for U.S. GDP and the CEIR Total Index. This is the base case scenario, where Dr. Shaw estimates the probability that this scenario will happen is 65%. Better than even odds. Interested readers who want to see the other possible scenario outcomes are encouraged to download the webinar deck. Dr. Shaw notes the best-case scenario has a 20% chance of happening, whereas the worst-case scenario probability is 5%. The four- scenario table is on page 42 of the webinar deck.
Today’s business environment remains quite dynamic and fast-changing. It might be the case that the assumptions upon which Dr. Shaw made these forecasts might shift and require adjustments. Though so far, the outlook is good. The assumption that the worst is behind us, that the peak of the daily average number of new COVID-19 cases happened in January is holding, and the drop is quite encouraging. The Biden Administration is working aggressively to assure the manufacture and distribution of enough vaccines for at least 100 million Americans to be vaccinated in the first 100 days of his presidency. A new vaccine by Johnson & Johnson is expected to get approval soon. We are on our way to achieving herd immunity. The only possible wrench in the wheel, so to speak are variants of the virus. Dr. Fauci and Dr. Gottlieb, among other public health professionals explain that booster shots will likely be developed to address new variants as they emerge. So, a new variant is not a guarantee of the reversal of progress underway in the U.S.
As well, an administration committed to maximizing vaccinations and consistent advocacy efforts to motivate Americans to follow the basic public health recommendations of wearing facial masks, washing one’s hands and keeping one’s distance are already having positive impacts. Many states have mandates requiring the wearing of face masks. All these developments are encouraging, and will help starve the virus and hopefully hasten containment.
We all need to work together on this to assure we will contain COVID-19 as quickly as we can so the U.S. B2B exhibition industry can get back to the business of bringing professional communities back together again in-person.